Ulises Hernandez, a 41-year-old Medicaid recipient, recently spent eight hours in an emergency room waiting for care after a dental crown slipped down his throat during a procedure. He had been discharged from the hospital just a few days prior and was in pain, unable to eat or drink. Hernandez’s experience has made him angry, and he is now protesting looming federal Medicaid cuts outside Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao’s Bakersfield office.
Hernandez is upset with Valadao’s vote for the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is expected to reduce Medicaid spending by more than $900 billion through 2034. The law includes stricter Medicaid eligibility rules and reduces federal money to states. Hernandez plans to vote for challenger Randy Villegas, who supports a single-payer universal healthcare system, saying that the current system is broken and that the U.S. pays twice as much as other countries for worse healthcare outcomes.
Defending His Vote
Valadao defends his vote on the GOP bill, saying “there are no actual cuts” to Medicaid. However, an estimated 60,000 more residents of his district could be without coverage by 2034 due to the tax and spending bill and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act insurance plans.
Researchers estimate that the new rules will push more than 2 million Californians statewide off their coverage, and the state stands to lose about $30 billion a year. Villegas has called out Valadao for his vote, saying it will “rip away healthcare from Valley families” and that many working-age adults may not satisfy new work requirements and twice-a-year eligibility checks.
Medicaid Cuts Loom Large
The Central Valley district, where roughly 6 in 10 of constituents are enrolled in Medicaid, is a key battleground in the upcoming election. Valadao has won six of his seven congressional elections, despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans in voter registrations by double-digit percentage points. However, the district’s congressional map was redrawn last year, making it more favorable for Democrats.
A Competitive Race
Valadao is the last Republican House incumbent who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol who is running for reelection to Congress. He has survived by focusing on local issues such as water infrastructure and distancing himself from the Trump administration. However, his vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has made him vulnerable to attack from Democrats.
Nationwide, healthcare costs remain a top affordability concern for voters, and they trust Democrats over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin on the issue, according to a September KFF poll. Valadao’s opponent, Villegas, has made healthcare a central part of his campaign, saying that the current system is broken.
Valadao participated in a $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser on Sept. 30, where he was joined by House Speaker Mike Johnson. However, when asked about his vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Valadao repeatedly refused to answer questions, saying, “I think you are distorting the truth.”
Election Spending Heats Up
As the election approaches, both parties are spending heavily in the district. Republicans and Democrats have each booked more than $16 million in ads, according to data compiled by AdImpact. The ads are reaching voters in unexpected ways, with some even being played during children’s videos on YouTube.
Seslie Maese, a stay-at-home mom from Bakersfield, said her 7-year-old son often watches Lego videos on YouTube and runs to her whenever a certain ad plays, announcing, “David Valadago is going on vacation again, Mom.” Maese is undecided, but what she has heard about Valadao doesn’t sound positive, particularly his vote to cut Medicaid for vulnerable populations.
Maese’s son doesn’t realize the ad, paid for by a Democratic political action committee, is meant as a criticism. For Maese, a politician who says one thing and does another is a deal-breaker. “He just hasn’t come through with anything he said,” she said, “especially since he cut off a lot of Medicaid.” The outcome of the election remains uncertain, with Maese and many other voters still weighing their options.
Valadao’s vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has become a central issue in the campaign, with many voters expressing concern about the potential impact on Medicaid coverage. On Nov. 3, he faces Villegas, a populist backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders who favors a single-payer universal healthcare system, and the result could have significant implications for the future of Medicaid in the district.
Competitive Election Ahead
According to Jeffrey Cummins, a political science professor at California State University-Fresno, the district’s redrawn congressional map and the anger toward incumbents could flip the seat. “Valadao knows that he’s on notice,” Cummins said. The election is expected to be highly competitive, with both parties investing heavily in the district.
He has also criticized Valadao’s vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, saying it will harm working-age adults who may not satisfy new work requirements and eligibility checks.
Election Implications
If Valadao wins, it could mean that the Medicaid cuts will go forward, potentially leaving thousands of residents without coverage. On the other hand, if Villegas wins, it could mean that the district will have a stronger advocate for protecting and expanding Medicaid coverage.
